Skip to main content

“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

JOHN O’FEE -- The Real Art of the International Deal


Global trade is a complicated, multi-faceted exercise over which I assert no particular expertise.  I do however, know this much.  The “simple” solutions are never that simple in the end.

Whether we want it or not, Canada has been dragged into a proxy trade war between the United States and China. Donald Trump is a self-described nationalist who favours walls, tariffs and the optics of the strong man. “Trudeau should have solved the softwood lumber issue” some argue. At the same time, China is turning the screws on Canada over the Huawei affair by detaining our citizens, holding up imports of some agricultural products like canola oil.  Some argue Trudeau should be doing more to “stand up” to China and the US. 

While Trump may be easy to mock and caricature, his seat in the Oval Office presents both challenges and opportunities for Canada. Regardless of your feelings about Trudeau, he has done a reasonable job interacting with Trump while not antagonizing him.

Any political observer can see that the Americans have (mistakenly) elected a petulant narcissist to their most powerful office.  However, that is also Canada’s reality and the relationship has to be navigated carefully.

Trump is famously thin skinned and appears to announce national policy on a whim and a tweet.  With Trump seeking attention from supporting states like Alaska, Idaho, Montana lumber tariffs are likely to remain. No Canadian leader is likely to achieve much on this front while Trump is in office. 

It’s a hard fact for forest dependent communities in BC but I think we have to be realistic.  One realistic strategy is to explore new markets for our lumber.   

So ... who else will by our lumber if not the US? 

According to the Export Development Corporation, China is set to surpass the United States as our number one lumber export market.  


Suddenly, antagonizing China doesn’t look quite so attractive for residents of forest industry communities.

As for Canola imports, it’s true that China is exerting political pressure on us by curtailing imports.  At the same time, China’s imports of Canadian wheat are skyrocketing……largely because of its trade dispute with the United States.  China’s imports of Canadian wheat are at a 14 year high and roughly double what they were a year ago.


Canada likely has an important role to play in trying to bridge a gap between the US and China when it comes to trade. Most of that work will be done quietly and behind the scenes.   In the meantime, our diplomats and political leaders need to tread carefully and exploit opportunities where they exist. 

Standing up to a bully sounds like a great strategy, until you realize that their combined economies are roughly 20 times our own.  Perhaps it makes more sense to try to work things out.


John O’Fee ... established a law practice in Kamloops focusing on real estate development, corporate transactions, wills and estates. He served three terms as a Kamloops school trustee, 11 years on Kamloops city council, and was also the CEO of the Tk’emlúps te Secwepemc (Kamloops Indian Band). He is a past chair of the Interior Health Authority, been recognized as a distinguished Alumnus of TRU, selected for a BC Community Achievement Award, designated as Queen’s Counsel, and received the Dean’s Award for Excellence in Teaching.

Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

WARD STAMER: “Hopefully he’s actually listening to what people have to say, and not just showing up for a photo op”

In his latest travels across the province, BC Forest Minister Ravi Parmar touched down in the Okanagan. A trip essentially, he said, to be on the ground meeting industry people. I read what he had to say, and about how he has been tasked with getting more timber to market. Let me start by saying, “ He hasn’t been tasked. He and Premier Eby guaranteed 45 million cubic metres of available wood fibre – they guaranteed that .” BC Timber Sales is a government agency within the provincial forest’s ministry, which is responsible for managing a portion of the province's Crown timber; specifically, 20 percent of the province's annual allowable cut. Unfortunately, BC Timber Sales did not provide anywhere near that amount last year, it was just 12.2 percent. Three years ago, BC mills cut 52 million metres of wood, bringing in nearly $2 billion dollars to the provincial treasury. That figure doesn’t include the taxes from 55,700 people directly employed in the industry, nor from the tens o...
Post a Comment
Read more

Conservative Opposition demonstrates focused and policy-oriented approach in first four weeks of the legislative session

In the first four weeks of the legislative session, the Conservative Official Opposition has scored significant policy wins as it proves every day that the Conservative team has fresh ideas and real-world experience to bring to the table. At the same time, the NDP government has been listless, struggling to find a policy agenda that addresses the problems that British Columbians are facing. “This NDP government led by David Eby has tried to do everything under the sun to distract from their disastrous fiscal record and the fact that they are utterly out of ideas,” said Conservative Opposition Leader John Rustad. “They’ve tried to use the U.S. President to deflect from their eye-popping $11 billion deficit, the worst business confidence in the country, and the fact that they’ve created almost zero private sector jobs. This is no way to run a province or an economy.” Since the legislative session started on February 18th with the Throne Speech, the opposition...
Post a Comment
Read more

Conservative Party of BC Calls for Coroner’s Inquest in the Death of Chantelle Williams

  Chantelle Williams/Facebook “Somebody has to come out and tell the truth on what happened and who’s at fault” ~~ Martin Watts, Uncle of Chantelle Williams The Conservative Party of BC is urgently calling for a coroner’s inquest into the death of 18-year-old Indigenous youth Chantelle Williams, who tragically died under the care of Usma Nuu-chah-nulth Family and Child Services, an agency of the Ministry of Children and Family Development. Her family is disturbed by the lack of transparency and unanswered questions surrounding her final moments, and are seeking answers on who was responsible for her care and supervision and why no one noticed she was missing until it was too late. Chantelle was found unresponsive in Port Alberni in the early morning of January 28, 2025. She was later pronounced dead in the hospital. Temperatures had dropped below –7°C the night of her death. Her family is demanding clarity on the circumstances that led to her untimely passing, and they demand answ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Labels

Show more