Phasing out Natural Gas to cost Ontario residents $3,300 annually per household by 2030 – Report

Residents in Ontario should expect to pay another $3,300 a year per household if natural gas is removed from the grid, according to a newly released report authored by economist Ross McKitrick.

According to the report released by LFX Associates, Costs and Benefits of Phasing out Gas in Ontario’s Electricity Sector, a gas phaseout by 2030 would also cause Ontario’s GDP to fall between 3.0% and 3.6%, and cost 17,000 to 25,000 jobs. The report combines estimates of power cost and blackout risk from Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator with analysis from a detailed model of the national economy.

The report also shows that phasing out natural gas would achieve no net environmental benefit. Air pollution from Ontario’s electricity sector already fell by 98% between 1991 and 2020 and contributes just under 0.008% of total global GHG emissions.

“We’ve seen the baseless push from the green movement to eliminate natural gas from the grid and, as this report confirms, it is sheer madness,” stated Canadians for Affordable Energy President Dan McTeague.

“Ontario has one of the cleanest grids in the world. Natural gas in Ontario contributes less than a rounding error in global GHGs. Phasing out natural gas is virtue signaling which will only lead to less affordable energy in Ontario with zero net environmental benefits.” McTeague added.

There has been a push from the environmental movement in recent years for governments to phase out natural gas from their grids. In Ontario, thirty-four municipalities have passed resolutions requesting that the Government phase-out natural gas plants. After December 31, 2023, it will be illegal to replace existing furnaces with any sort of heating system powered by fossil fuels in Quebec. And in Nanaimo, British Columbia, new homes won't be allowed to have natural gas as a primary heat source as of July 1, 2024.

“Governments across Canada should heed the warnings laid out in this report,” McTeague added. “Canada’s grid is as reliable and affordable as it is because of fossil fuels. This push to remove natural gas from the grid is foolish and shortsighted.”