Thoughts on BC Politics and More

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is blaming Prime Minister Mark Carney’s policies for Canada entering recession territory. Statistics Canada released a report Friday that said the economy contracted slightly for the second quarter in a row to start the year — a benchmark that meets some definitions of a technical recession. Some economists weighing in after that release said the recession talk was premature and argued that while Canada’s economy is soft, the declines are marginal and do not meet the definition of a widespread downturn. Poilievre said Friday there’s nothing technical about rising rates of mortgage delinquency, increased food bank usage and five quarters of falling business investment ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of Mark Carney’s second political honeymoon? Although the federal Liberals continue to lead their Conservative rivals in public support, new data from Liaison Strategies suggest the government’s approval ratings have taken a hit in recent weeks. Naturally, nuance is key here: net approval remains comfortably in positive territory, but the recent movement in the numbers can hardly be dismissed as mere statistical noise. According to the latest Liaison update — a two-week rolling poll fielded from May 4 to 16, 2026 — 56% of respondents approve of Mark Carney’s performance as Prime Minister of Canada, against 36% who expressed disapproval ... CLICK HERE for the full story

When The Bureau published its analysis of Bill C-2 last fall, the diagnosis was unsparing. Ottawa had confused expansion of state power over ordinary Canadians with the enforcement tools Canada actually needs to confront the Chinese Triads, Mexican cartels, and hostile-state networks that have turned Canadian cities into operational platforms for the hemisphere’s most dangerous criminal organizations. The government has now repackaged that same flawed instinct under a new number. Bill C-22, the so-called Lawful Access Act, deserves the same verdict. The critics arriving at that conclusion now span an extraordinary coalition ... CLICK HERE for the full story

The Conservatives and NDP sit on opposite sides of the spectrum, but they’re voicing similar concerns about the trajectory of Canada’s medical assistance in dying (MAID) regime. The two opposition parties could be moving toward an unlikely alliance against further expansion, with a report on extending MAID eligibility to the mentally ill expected by summer ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday he will "take into account" the advice of an independent advisory body to fill a number of vacancies in the Senate — though he didn't say explicitly how that will impact his decisions on appointments. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau upended 150 years of Canadian parliamentary tradition when he dumped Liberal senators, named Independents to the upper chamber and generally stripped the place of its partisan elements ...   CLICK HERE for the full story 

It’s an awkward time for many Canadian conservatives. The country is led by a rich former banker who has increased military spending and expedited resource-oriented projects. He also happens to be a Liberal. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party of Canada is struggling with defections and lagging in the polls. And last year’s election exposed a deep cultural divide between the small-government, buttoned-down conservatives of the recent past and an angrier, brasher right that views U.S. President Donald Trump’s bombastic rhetoric not as a threat but as an inspiration. The implications for Canadians are obvious and can be traced by opinion polling, which suggests many voters who once favoured the Conservatives have now switched allegiances ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Nationally, Léger puts the Liberals at 48%, unchanged from its late-March survey. The Conservatives gain three points to reach 37%, while both the Bloc Québécois and the NDP stand at 6%.  In other words: movement at the margin, but no meaningful dent in the Liberal lead. Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate in the country’s largest provinces. Léger measures an 11-point Liberal lead in Ontario (51% to 40%) and a 20-point advantage in Quebec (47% to 27% for the Bloc) ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Will Carney get his majority?   Well, we can certainly say he will have 171 seats after the three by-elections are done.  The two Toronto area riding's are safe Liberal seats formerly represented by Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. The only fight will be for the nomination, if that hasn't already been decided.  Given the poll numbers today as well, those two riding's will easily remain Liberal. So the Terrebonne riding has been held, historically, by the old Progressive Conservatives, the Bloc Quebecois, and the Liberals. The 2025 election saw the Liberals win it by 1 vote which was then overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada on technicalities. This was a routine ruling for the court. What will a round 2 look like? The same candidates for the two main parties are running again, and by that I mean the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives came in at a very distant third in 2025 and aren't expected to be a major force in the by-election. ...

I'll let Ms. Gilmore do most of the talking as her piece is excellent. Just to make it clear: she is an actual investigate journalist with accreditation and real training. She is not some citizen journalist. She went to school. She works in the field. As mentioned, she has press credentials which means she actually gets access to media rooms, conferences, press galleys, etc where real journalists can ask questions. Citizens journalists do not do that nor can they. Unlike journalists and the accredited media, people that produce non-news television programs and movies aren't held to the same standards when it comes to bias. Mr. Mastin's job and that of the CMPA is to lobby governments in Canada for monetary support for local productions. To sum up the issue first. Conservative influencers and some elected Conservatives shared a screen shot with the words "we have your back" claiming this came from the news media to Mark Carney and the Liberals. Their claim was ...

Mainstreet polled Canadians from January 31st until end of day Monday, February 2, 2026 and got results that more or less confirmed what Leger and Liaison saw in their polls: the Liberals are surging, the Conservatives are either stagnant or sinking.   When we have three polls saying basically the same thing we have a trend and we don't ignore trends. Party campaign staff do not ignore these trends either. They watch them carefully.   The numbers I am covering here are the all voters, and not the decided and leaning voters only categories from the poll. The latter is actually worse for the Conservatives. These are the, if you can call them that, better numbers.    NATIONAL NUMBERS: The current standings, nationally are as follows: 48% Liberal Party of Canada 34% Conservative Party of Canada 4% New Democratic Party of Canada 5% Bloc Quebecois 2% Green Party   REGIONAL NUMBERS: The Liberals lead in every region except the Prairie provinces of Alber...

What will 2026 bring? Only fools presume to answer that query, but hey, I’ve been called worse things. So get out a big bowl to hold all the crow I might have to eat, and let’s go ... CLICK HERE for the full story  

Just as many of us were getting ready for a much-needed breather from the daily grind, several pollsters released their final numbers of the 2025 calendar — and, to varying degrees, they all point in the same direction: the Carney Liberals appear to have taken a pre-holiday hit in public support. I often warn readers about polls fielded at unconventional times of year, such as the height of summer or long weekends. Collecting a representative sample during these periods can be more challenging, and the results can occasionally get wonky. Could the pre-holiday period fall into that category? There is little firm evidence to make such a claim, but if the LPC/Carney numbers rebound early in 2026, this may become a precedent worth keeping an eye on ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Turncoat MP Michael Ma was gifted the Conservative candidate nomination for Markham-Unionville.   He wasn’t burdened with having to demonstrate loyalty by going through the gruelling task of selling hundreds or thousands of memberships. He was spared canvassing in sweltering heat and bitter cold and the discomfort of facing rude Liberal or NDP voters while door-knocking. He didn’t earn it. But Hong Kong-born Ma, who didn’t have much skin in the game, was announced as the Ontario riding’s Conservative candidate the same day the federal election was called.  It was a big, baffling risk. And a big mistake ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been encouraging Prime Minister Mark Carney to steal his ideas on everything from tax cuts to bail reform since the April election — but he says what Carney is doing with those ideas amounts to “counterfeit conservatism.” “He will tell you that he has copied my idea on, say, the carbon tax but then while he hides the most visible part of the carbon tax, he raises other fuel taxes,” Poilievre said. Carney is widely seen to be moving the Liberals to the political centre after years of centre-left policies under former prime minister Justin Trudeau ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

The Liberals stand at 39%, unchanged from last week, while the Conservatives sit at 36%, down two points. The NDP ticks back up to 11%. Compared with the previous four-week wave, support for the main parties remains well within the poll’s margin of error. Since October, Liberal support has ranged between 39% and 42%, while the Conservatives have oscillated between 36% and 38% — notably narrow bands for both parties over the past two months. As for the NDP, Nanos had measured the party in the low teens for most of the fall, and it now appears to have reverted to those levels after a brief dip in November. The preferred prime minister tracker has also returned to values seen in recent months. Mark Carney is the choice of 51% of Canadians, compared with 26% for Pierre Poilievre. See chart below for results from past weeks ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

I want the pipeline to the West Coast to succeed. And I want the federal Conservatives to knock off the Liberal government.  So why do I agree with the Liberals that Tuesday’s opposition motion in the Commons to get MPs to show support for the pipeline was a “cheap political stunt” and “immature?” Because it was ... CLICK HERE for the full story

For all the noise that has accompanied Mark Carney’s first seven months as prime minister, one fact is now impossible to deny: the prime minister is rebuilding the federal Liberal Party into a modern, centrist, pro-growth political coalition — one that Canada has not seen in a generation. Donald Trump’s protectionism and the changing global trading order have no doubt accelerated Carney’s reforms. Still, one gets the sense that Carney is determined to reorient Canada’s Natural Governing Party come hell or high water. The transformation has been swift, substantive and unapologetically focused on economic renewal amid a precarious time for the country. And it’s beginning to resonate with Canadians who have grown tired of ideological rigidity on both ends of the political spectrum ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

As much as we expect normal fluctuations in a 250-cases-per-week tracker, this morning’s Nanos Research update swung back hard against the Liberals. Call it regression to the mean or a sudden slip tied to recent events (such as the Canada–Alberta MOU), but the LPC shed three points in a single week, while the NDP bounced back into double-digit support — albeit barely. Nationally, Nanos now puts the Liberals at 39%, one point ahead of the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP sits at 10%, and the Bloc at 6%. Just last week, the same tracker showed the LPC holding a four-point lead (42% to 38%) ... CLICK HERE for the full story

It has been polling galore in this early December. The metaphorical ink of the latest 338 Sunday Update was barely dry when we were treated to a trio of fresh federal surveys from Liaison Strategies, the Angus Reid Institute, and the weekly Nanos Research tracker. The Liberal government has had to navigate several minefields over the past few weeks — some of its own making — and the early numbers suggest it may finish this tumultuous 2025 largely unscathed. Mostly, but not entirely ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

If, as the Liberals say, Pierre Poilivere is a terrible leader and the Conservatives are bankrupt of ideas, why does Prime Minister Mark Carney keep stealing them? ... ... these policies – and policy reversals – by Carney are designed to win over Conservative voters to the Liberals in the next election in pursuit of a Liberal majority ... CLICK HERE for the full story