Thoughts on BC Politics and More

With the return of Parliament on Monday, there has been a flurry of polls published over the last week. Those polls don’t all tell the same story, but there are a few conclusions we can draw from the numbers as this political season is about to begin. The polls come from Léger, Nanos Research, Abacus Data, Mainstreet Research and the Angus Reid Institute. They show voting intentions ranging from a 10-point Liberal lead to a small two-point Conservative advantage ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Last week, I said that I was waiting for corroboration or refutation of the trends being picked up by EKOS Research. With new numbers out over the last week from Léger, Abacus Data and Nanos Research, it seems like the direction of the trend has been corroborated while the size of the Liberals’ surge has been refuted. ... the balance of evidence points to an increase in Liberal support of only a few points, closing the gap with the Conservatives to between 15 and 20 points. No one yet is showing anything close to statistical tie EKOS picked up in its polls. Léger finds that the Liberals are up four points since the beginning of January and five points since before the Christmas break. Abacus shows a two point increase over the last few weeks while Nanos has the Liberals up four points compared to its pre-holidays polling. That’s a clear trend, but it doesn’t match the 14-point gain that EKOS has observed since its December poll ... CLICK HERE for the full story

You know you're in trouble when trailing by 10 points is considered good news The much-awaited (and heavily-teased) Abacus Data federal poll dropped earlier this week, and its content may have brought a rare sigh of relief for Liberal MPs and supporters across the country. Naturally, we won’t know until more polling comes out whether 1) Abacus caught a new trend first, or 2) if it was just a statistical blimp. (Some readers wrote to me scoffing at these numbers by labelling them “December polls”, akin to when we wondered whether wonky “Summer polls” were the reason for the sudden rise in CPC support back in August. Partisanship is, and remains, very much in the eyes of the beholder.) ... CLICK HERE for the full commentary

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions ... CLICK HERE for the full discussion

  Recent polling data on the Canadian political landscape seems to tell a story of shifting opinions and intended behaviour. The Liberals trail by double digits and many have been asking me, what’s causing this?    Is this surge more about a nation's newfound love for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party, or is more more about a growing dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government?   CLICK HERE for the full story