Thoughts on BC Politics and More

By Sylvain Charlebois — June 22, 2026 Under Carney, food prices have risen faster than inflation for 15 straight months -- and that is leaving Canadians facing some of the fastest-rising food prices in the G7 The latest inflation numbers from Statistics Canada should make policymakers uncomfortable. In May, overall inflation reached 3.2 per cent, while food inflation climbed to 3.8 per cent. At first glance, the difference may seem modest. But beneath the headline lies a trend that should concern anyone paying attention to Canada’s economy: food inflation has exceeded overall inflation every single month since Mark Carney became prime minister in March 2025. Not once during his tenure has food inflation fallen below the national inflation rate. That streak has now reached 15 consecutive months. For Canadians, this matters far more than many economists realize. While inflation is often discussed as a broad economic concept, consumers experience inflation through everyday purchases. They...

Higher gas prices driven mainly by the war in Iran pushed inflation higher in April but some economists argue the conflict’s looming costs haven’t been fully captured in the latest price data. Inflation rose to 2.8 per cent in April, Statistics Canada said Tuesday -- the highest annual inflation rate since May 2024. StatCan’s April report marks a jump from March’s inflation rate of 2.4 per cent, though a Reuters poll of economists had expected inflation would accelerate even more to top three per cent ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Why so many forecasts get it wrong By Roslyn Kunin — December 9, 2025 Most forecasts fail for one simple reason: they assume people won’t change their behaviour when circumstances change. That mistake keeps producing dramatic but misleading predictions. One example appeared recently in a news story warning that food costs for the average family will rise by $1,000 in the coming year. Prices for many items are expected to climb, especially meat and notably beef. Estimates like this often come from Canada’s Food Price Report, which looks at how much the average household’s grocery bill may change in the year ahead. How the $1,000 figure was reached is straightforward. Statisticians priced a typical family’s grocery cart and added the expected increases. Buying the same mix of groceries next year would cost $1,000 more. The problem isn’t the math. It’s the assumption that families won’t change what they buy. In reality, shoppers adjust, and the real increase is almost always l...

Peter Milobar, Conservative MLA for Kamloops Centre and Opposition Critic for Finance, issued the following statement today in response to the latest inflation data from Statistics Canada: "Once again, British Columbians are paying the price for NDP mismanagement, with BC recording the highest food inflation rate in Canada at 3.9%, significantly higher than the national average of 3.4%. It's no coincidence the lowest food inflation rate in the country - Saskatchewan's 2.8% - is found in a province not governed by the NDP." Milobar cited analysis from Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, who highlighted the severe challenges faced by BC's food industry due to skyrocketing input, labour, and transportation costs.  "BC government policies are directly responsible for pushing food producers and processors out of the province, forcing products to be shipped out for processing and then shipped back ...

In contrast to an uptick in the national inflation rate, British Columbia’s rate fell in June to 2.1 per cent year-over-year, from 2.3 per cent in May. Core measures also declined, with inflation excluding energy dropping to 2.7 per cent from 3.0 per cent while inflation excluding both food and energy fell to 2.5 per cent from 3.0 per cent. That said, BC’s inflation rate remained higher than the national reading of 1.9 per cent ... ... While BC residents are seeing some price relief, tariff-related shocks are filtering into prices. Vehicle prices are rising, as are goods such as clothing and footwear, pointing to some impacts of Canadian retaliation against U.S. tariffs ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Who’s standing up for Canada’s poorest families? While there has been near-total political consensus around the need for retaliatory tariffs, it’s Canada’s poor who may be paying the heaviest price, literally at the grocery store. The latest inflation data, released Tuesday by Statistics Canada, show the extent to which Canada’s counter-tariffs on U.S. goods are driving up food prices here. On a seasonally adjusted basis, food prices have jumped 4.4 percent since January (or 18 percent annualized). That’s the biggest three-month surge in food inflation in records going back to the early 1990s—and more sudden than even any three-month period during the pandemic. Lower-income households feel this most acutely ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Blaming the U.S. won’t cut it. Canada’s food inflation crisis is largely a result of Ottawa’s poor policy choices By Sylvain Charlebois It was expected, but still jarring. In April, food inflation in Canada surged to 3.8 per cent—a full 2.1 percentage points above the national inflation rate and nearly double the U.S. rate of two per cent. Once again, food is the primary driver behind headline inflation, amplifying affordability concerns across the country. But this isn’t just a story of global disruption or seasonal cycles. It’s increasingly clear that Canada’s food inflation is largely homegrown—a direct result of domestic policy missteps, particularly tariffs and protectionist procurement practices. Since March, when both Canada and the United States introduced a new round of tariffs, the difference in outcomes has been striking. U.S. food inflation has continued to cool, while Canada’s has nearly tripled over the same period—a divergence that should raise serious red flag...