Thoughts on BC Politics and More

Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of Mark Carney’s second political honeymoon? Although the federal Liberals continue to lead their Conservative rivals in public support, new data from Liaison Strategies suggest the government’s approval ratings have taken a hit in recent weeks. Naturally, nuance is key here: net approval remains comfortably in positive territory, but the recent movement in the numbers can hardly be dismissed as mere statistical noise. According to the latest Liaison update — a two-week rolling poll fielded from May 4 to 16, 2026 — 56% of respondents approve of Mark Carney’s performance as Prime Minister of Canada, against 36% who expressed disapproval ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Dominic Cardy, leader of the Canadian Future Party In Davos, we witnessed a moment that tells us as much about our global predicament as about the profound choices facing Canada and the free world.  Prime Minister Carney’s address to the World Economic Forum was remarkable, chiefly because he did what too many leaders refuse to do. He acknowledged bluntly that the old world order is gone. As he put it, we are living through “a rupture, not a transition” in international politics, an era where the rules that once constrained great powers no longer hold, and a harsher geopolitical reality is upon us. This observation is obvious to anyone paying attention.  The certainties of the last 75 years are dissolving under the weight of rising autocracies, shifting alliances, and economic coercion practiced as statecraft. Where Carney was incisive, and where many of his predecessors were timid, was in naming the problem. The rules-based system of the post-Cold War era is eroding, leaving ...

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on the federal government to scrap its gun ban and confiscation program after confiscating only 25 firearms during its Cape Breton pilot project. Ottawa promised results. Taxpayers got proof of failure Ottawa’s pilot project cost a lot of money, but only picked up a fraction of the guns projected,” said Gage Haubrich, CTF Prairie Director. “Law enforcement experts told the government the gun confiscation won’t work and now the failed pilot project has proven the point.” The federal government conducted a pilot project to confiscate firearms from licensed gun owners in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, for approximately six weeks starting in September 2025. The federal government agreed to give at least $149,760 to the Cape Breton Regional Municipality to carry out the confiscation. The government aimed to confiscate 200 firearms during the pilot project. It only collected 25. The police and other experts have publicly stated this scheme won’t ma...

As much as we expect normal fluctuations in a 250-cases-per-week tracker, this morning’s Nanos Research update swung back hard against the Liberals. Call it regression to the mean or a sudden slip tied to recent events (such as the Canada–Alberta MOU), but the LPC shed three points in a single week, while the NDP bounced back into double-digit support — albeit barely. Nationally, Nanos now puts the Liberals at 39%, one point ahead of the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP sits at 10%, and the Bloc at 6%. Just last week, the same tracker showed the LPC holding a four-point lead (42% to 38%) ... CLICK HERE for the full story

This post is from, and refers to, Sunday November 30th: It was another busy week in Canadian politics, albeit a quieter one in the polls — at least federally. This post-budget, pre-Holiday slowdown was not unexpected, as many polling firms are preparing to field and publish their final numbers of 2025, which should arrive in the first half of December. Still, it will be fascinating to see which way the needle moves (if it moves at all) following the announcement of the Canada–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on a potential pipeline project linking Alberta to the Pacific Coast through northern British Columbia. You can read the full text of the agreement here. The Angus Reid Institute was the first to release a national survey on the issue, and the results were broadly positive from coast to coast — you’ll find my full analysis of that poll here. This agreement could seriously affect how voters view the Prime Minister, particularly in British Columbia and Quebec, where the Libe...

An alleged vote-buying scandal in Quebec’s Liberal Party is dredging up the same vulnerabilities that two landmark inquiries – one federal, one provincial – have already warned Canadians about. The new crisis engulfing the Quebec Liberals focuses on Justin Trudeau’s former Quebec lieutenant and long-time Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez, a heavyweight organizer within Canada’s most successful political machine, going back to his days in the Liberal youth wing. The latest escalation – including early “validations” by Quebec’s anti-corruption unit, UPAC – comes in the wake of a journalistic investigation by Quebecor’s Bureau d’enquête revealing that Élections Québec is in possession of text messages between two people who allegedly worked to elect Rodriguez as Liberal leader last spring ...  CLICK HERE for the full story

If now-backbench Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault was looking for sympathy, he won’t find it from four of the five candidates vying to be the next NDP leader. Edmonton MP Heather McPherson had a blunt assessment when asked in a post-debate scrum about the anti-oil Guilbeault’s decision to quit Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet in protest over an agreement with Alberta towards building a new oil pipeline ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Yukon's territorial election campaign will officially begin on Friday. Premier Mike Pemberton says he'll ask Yukon Commissioner Adeline Webber on Friday to dissolve the legislative assembly and set the territorial election for Nov. 3. Pemberton made the announcement in Carcross on Thursday, alongside a handful of Liberal candidates. Pemberton's Liberals are seeking a third mandate with an almost entirely new roster of candidates this time. All but one of the party's sitting MLAs decided not to run again. It's also Pemberton's first campaign after taking over as party leader earlier this year ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

Over the last decade, the path to a Liberal majority government has been pretty straightforward: dominate the urban centres outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, win the suburbs in and around Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, and sweep most of Atlantic Canada. But did the 2025 election chance that? The results of that election — as well as the kind of electorate attracted to an unflashy technocrat like Mark Carney — has potentially given the Liberals alternative routes to a majority government. The question is whether they will pursue those alternatives ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer attracted significant attention and headlines last week with a report on Canada’s economic and fiscal outlook. He didn’t mince words, calling the federal situation both “shocking” and “unsustainable.” The PBO analysis found that the federal budget deficit will grow beyond previous projections. From the total of just over $132 billion between 2025 and 2028 that was projected in Budget 2024 to the nearly $255 billion now projected for those years ... CLICK HERE for the full story

After a decade of wandering in the political wilderness, the Conservative Party of Canada has some reason to be optimistic as the 45th Parliament gets back to work. Mark Carney seems to have misplaced the rabbit’s foot that has brought him such good luck since his election last April as a political rookie. Just to keep things in perspective, the Liberals are still the party to beat, according to the latest Abacus polls ... CLICK HERE for the full story

As Ottawa inches toward business as usual after a quiet summer, a popular column theme has emerged. Loosely defined, it’s “Pierre Poilievre: Now What?” This genre of take can go in a few different directions. Sometimes it’s Tories offering unsolicited advice to the federal Conservative leader on how he should approach the fall sitting of Parliament after his humiliating election defeat. Sometimes it’s journalists or pollsters assessing his opportunities to gain ground on Mark Carney and the Liberals. Sometimes it’s yet another piece about an “image makeover,” as though the only thing that kept him out of 24 Sussex Rideau Cottage was his decision to go full T-shirt. A consistent argument across most of these articles is that Poilievre ought to try being, well, a little nicer ... CLICK HERE for the full story

IMAGE CREDIT: RBC   The federal government elected at the end of April 2025 decided not to table a budget this spring. Even in uncertain times, presenting a budget should not be optional. At the very least, an economic update in June would have provided a snapshot of public finances and the financial impact of recent decisions. Instead, we’ll have to wait until fall for a full picture of the federal books. In the meantime, we’re left with numbers from the December 2024 economic statement. But a lot has changed since then: revenues are falling, spending is climbing, and the deficit is almost certainly worse than what the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) projected in its campaign platform ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

On a drizzly Monday evening in June, more than 800 Liberal Party donors mingled with 14 cabinet ministers, eight secretaries of state and the prime minister at the Canadian War Museum, enjoying hors d'oeuvres and views of the Ottawa River. The annual Laurier Club Summer Reception and Garden Party is an exclusive event for Liberal supporters who donate the legal maximum of $1,750 to the federal party each year. It is a must-go not just for politicians, but also those hoping to influence them. An IJF analysis has found that dozens of registered lobbyists attended this year’s event, gaining access to cabinet ministers without triggering federal lobbying disclosure rules.   That’s despite the long-standing Liberal pledge to ensure “registered Lobbyists don’t attend ticketed events where they’re registered to lobby the relevant special guest" ... CLICK HERE for the full story 

In our latest national survey, we asked Canadians to go beyond partisanship and consider a fundamental question: What qualities matter most in a Prime Minister? The answers were striking and reveal just how much leadership style matters right now. At a time defined by uncertainty, Canadians are craving steadiness over spectacle. They want a Prime Minister who puts the country ahead of politics (74%), understands the challenges facing ordinary people (72%), and has a clear, strategic plan (71%). Traits like calmness under pressure, evidence-based decision-making, and clear communication round out the top of the list. So, who best embodies this leadership profile today?  CLICK HERE for the full story

The mystery is over. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s conflict of interest register shows well-known American companies dominated his investment portfolio ... Carney kept the Liberal Party in minority power in the April 28 election. His patriotic “Elbows Up” campaign exploited fears about Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats to make Canada the 51st state. On July 11, the Office of the Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner website released Carney’s long-awaited disclosure files . Carney had resisted showing the files before the election, insisting he was following the rules that allowed him to delay disclosure to four months after becoming Prime Minister.  Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre suggested Carney did not want the public to know the truth about the depth and breadth of his American investments ... CLICK HERE for the full story

... Carney is not a Liberal in the way Trudeau was. He’s an elite, but he had a long and notable career before entering electoral politics. He has international stature independent of the party brand. He’s also new. He came in and managed to save the party from electoral oblivion—and many in his caucus owe their jobs to him. This gives him leeway to jettison unpopular positions and course-correct without remorse. He’s a pattern breaker. And one pattern he’s keen to break is the political cycle of disillusionment, though he isn’t the first to claim the mantle.  Carney and his team seem to be betting that goodwill will stem from competence rather than charisma—swapping “sunny ways” with “plan versus slogan.” He’s also attempting to cash out that goodwill fast, signalling he won’t let idealism get bogged down in bureaucracy and endless box checking. He wants to prove that this time, Ottawa can actually get stuff done ... CLICK HERE for the full story

The federal election was, at best, a reprieve for Canadian sovereignty, democracy and citizen well-being. It is also a warning: a new approach that addresses the forces of division and demolition is desperately needed. In a remarkable demonstration of civic solidarity and political pragmatism, many Canadians, including urban New Democrats and nationalist Bloc Québécois supporters, voted strategically to prevent a Conservative win and send a message to Donald Trump ... CLICK HERE for the full story

Abacus Data published its latest federal release this morning. While the horserace shows little movement since the April election, there are interesting findings on government satisfaction and leader impressions. Favourability for the new Prime Minister continues to climb. In Abacus’ previous release in May, Mark Carney posted a net +20 score (49% positive vs. 29% negative). This month, those numbers have improved slightly to 51% positive and 27% negative—a strong net rating of +24 ... CLICK HERE for the full story

It is tempting to think that Mark Carney is something of a political superman. In meteoric fashion, and without any political experience, he won the leadership of the Liberal party in a landslide. Then, on a very short runway, he ran a successful national campaign that raised his moribund party from the dead. It was the equivalent of hitting a home run in his first at-bat in the bigs ... ... but can Superman scale the tall building of actually governing — with all its problems and pitfalls both foreseen and unexpected? ... CLICK HERE for the full story