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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

KRUGGEL: Will Carney get his majority?

Will Carney get his majority?  

Well, we can certainly say he will have 171 seats after the three by-elections are done. 

The two Toronto area riding's are safe Liberal seats formerly represented by Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. The only fight will be for the nomination, if that hasn't already been decided. 

Given the poll numbers today as well, those two riding's will easily remain Liberal.

So the Terrebonne riding has been held, historically, by the old Progressive Conservatives, the Bloc Quebecois, and the Liberals. The 2025 election saw the Liberals win it by 1 vote which was then overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada on technicalities. This was a routine ruling for the court.

What will a round 2 look like?

The same candidates for the two main parties are running again, and by that I mean the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives came in at a very distant third in 2025 and aren't expected to be a major force in the by-election.
 
Which means were down to two parties that were neck and neck in 2025. 

But what about now? 

338Canada.com says the riding is currently a toss up. Neither the Bloc Quebecois or the Liberals have a polling advantage.

I'm going to venture a guess and say the Liberals have the edge. My argument is that the current trend line in Quebec squarely favors the Liberals. They've been gaining or holding support in the province overall. 
 
That doesn't necessarily put the riding in their pocket but it gives them an advantage. If people are moving to the Liberals, even slowly, then a riding that was decided by 1 vote in 2025 is likely going to have slightly more Liberal support today than in 2025. The Liberals just need to pick up about a dozen of so votes to make a win there bulletproof.

If Terrebonne goes to the Liberals Mark Carney will have a majority government.

Regardless of Terrebonne though, he'll have 171 MPs which means he just needs 1 lone MP to vote with the government or abstain on confidence votes. Considering the NDP cannot afford to run a national election for the next few years, Mark Carney already has a majority.

Winning Terrebonne would be a cherry on top.
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