Skip to main content

“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

KRUGGEL: Will Carney get his majority?

Will Carney get his majority?  

Well, we can certainly say he will have 171 seats after the three by-elections are done. 

The two Toronto area riding's are safe Liberal seats formerly represented by Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. The only fight will be for the nomination, if that hasn't already been decided. 

Given the poll numbers today as well, those two riding's will easily remain Liberal.

So the Terrebonne riding has been held, historically, by the old Progressive Conservatives, the Bloc Quebecois, and the Liberals. The 2025 election saw the Liberals win it by 1 vote which was then overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada on technicalities. This was a routine ruling for the court.

What will a round 2 look like?

The same candidates for the two main parties are running again, and by that I mean the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives came in at a very distant third in 2025 and aren't expected to be a major force in the by-election.
 
Which means were down to two parties that were neck and neck in 2025. 

But what about now? 

338Canada.com says the riding is currently a toss up. Neither the Bloc Quebecois or the Liberals have a polling advantage.

I'm going to venture a guess and say the Liberals have the edge. My argument is that the current trend line in Quebec squarely favors the Liberals. They've been gaining or holding support in the province overall. 
 
That doesn't necessarily put the riding in their pocket but it gives them an advantage. If people are moving to the Liberals, even slowly, then a riding that was decided by 1 vote in 2025 is likely going to have slightly more Liberal support today than in 2025. The Liberals just need to pick up about a dozen of so votes to make a win there bulletproof.

If Terrebonne goes to the Liberals Mark Carney will have a majority government.

Regardless of Terrebonne though, he'll have 171 MPs which means he just needs 1 lone MP to vote with the government or abstain on confidence votes. Considering the NDP cannot afford to run a national election for the next few years, Mark Carney already has a majority.

Winning Terrebonne would be a cherry on top.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Budget 2027: After a Decade of Decline, NDP Budget Delivers an Assault on Seniors, Working Families, and Small Businesses

Peter Milobar, BC Conservative Finance Critic, condemned the NDP government’s latest budget as the result of a decade of decline that has left British Columbians broke, unsafe, and paying more for less.   “After ten years of NDP mismanagement, this budget is an assault on seniors, working families, and the small businesses that drive our economy,” said Milobar. “The NDP have turned their back on the people working hardest to make ends meet and the seniors who built this province.” Milobar pointed to a new $1.1 billion annual income tax increase and warned that the government is piling new costs onto households already struggling with affordability.   “This government keeps asking British Columbians for more, while delivering less,” Milobar said. “The question people are asking is simple: Where has all the money gone?” Milobar noted that BC has gone from a surplus in the first year of NDP government to a projected deficit of more than $13 billion this year, while prov...
Post a Comment
Read more

WARD STAMER -- Those are REAL forestry numbers, not just made-up numbers

The following is a condensed version of remarks Kamloops – North Thompson MLA Ward Stamer’s made, regarding Forestry, in the BC Legislature, on Tuesday afternoon (02/24/2026)   Let’s talk a little bit, when we talk about Budget 2026, about the forest industry, which is near and dear to my heart. Forestry remains one of British Columbia’s foundational industries. It’s a pillar that built this province. Entire communities depend upon it. Interior towns, northern communities, Vancouver Island regions, the Kootenays, the Lower Mainland, with manufacturing facilities in Surrey and Maple Ridge, just to name a few — everywhere in BC is touched by forestry. One word that was not mentioned in Budget 2026 was forestry. That’s a shame, an incredible shame. It wasn’t an oversight – it was intentional. This government has driven forestry into the ground .... INTO THE GROUND! We can talk a little bit about some of the initiatives that this government has brought forth, to try to resurrect ...
Post a Comment
Read more

FORSETH -- Before anyone gets excited about one poll showing a candidate with a 25 percent lead, and 44 percent support overall, let’s give it a few more weeks

Is this based in reality -- how accurate are the numbers? In the past couple of weeks a couple of candidates, for the leadership of the BC Conservative Party, have been presenting polling results that they lead the pack – one even going so far as to say they have a lock on 44% of those who will be voting, and a twenty-five percent lead over the individual ranked second. I am going to say that this one, from Kerry-Lynne Findlay, is highly suspect. First of all the company conducting the poll, ERG National Research, is not a Member of Industry Bodies (the Canadian Research Insights Council), meaning they do not adhere to established industry standards for research, such as transparency, privacy, and methodological rigor. AI Overview states that ... based on alerts from the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and reports, ERG National Research should be treated with extreme caution regarding its reliability, and legitimacy, in conducting political polling. Before I even read this in...
Post a Comment
Read more

Labels

Show more