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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

KRUGELL: BC NDP turns its attention from BC United to BC Conservatives


The BC NDP turning its attention, from BC United, to BC Conservatives was reported over the weekend from a variety of sources. It is the result of the surge in the BC Conservative's polling numbers and the subsequent collapse of BC United.

The NDP has largely ignored the BC Conservatives, instead they opt to talk about issues directly or attack their old foes BC United.

Practical politics says that parties closer to the centre tend to ultimately prevail over the long haul. They do wane but often make comebacks. A good example is the federal Liberals going from third party to government in 2015. Centrism has a lot of appeal on voting day.

The NDP shifting its fire from United to Conservative is a reflection of reality.

BC United did buy advertising online and radio over the last few months.

Did that shift the polls back to them? Nope. The reality is today, the BC Conservatives are the party of the Opposition, and day by day the Conservatives are looking like a party not ready to fight for the number two spot, but instead, the number one spot.

We've had four mainstream polling companies reporting. Two put the NDP at 40% or more. Two put them in the mid to high 30s. Two put the BC Conservatives in the 20s while the other two put them in the low 30s. If you're a campaign manager or strategist or even the party leader looking at those numbers you're left wonder just where do you stand?

Well, as stated, the BC Conservatives are well ahead of BC United. All four polls agree on that. They disagree about the distance between the NDP and the BC Conservatives.


There are questions people familiar and experienced with politics will ask:

1. can the BC Conservatives sustain this momentum or have they peaked early?

2. will BC United make a comeback?

3. could we be facing a seismic political shift in October?

The first question, in my mind, is the most important.

Parties that surge early sometimes fizzle out. The surge is based on sudden but shallow understanding of what they stand for. Ross Perot, perhaps the most famous example, from the US, surged to almost the top of the Presidential polls in 1991. Then he started talking about policy and after an "in and out" of the race he became a spent force.

Tom Mulcair's NDP surged to a small lead in 2015 as you might recall, and we were looking at a potential minority government. One flub later, and policy that really missed the mark with the voters of the day, and they were back in third place.

Being this far out from election day (October 19th) means more scrutiny on the new comer.

Let's face it: the NDP is well known. There are few revelations to be made there. The BC Conservatives are fielding a team of almost exclusively new faces. These are people with histories on social media that will be combed over for weeks and months going forward. You and I are going to hear about this ad nauseam as anything controversial is dug up.

Let me end with this ... no matter what happens between now and election day, it is clear that the BC Conservatives have moved from the fringe to the mainstream. They are a political force and denying that would be a foolish move.

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