Skip to main content

“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

DEVON KRUGGEL: This is what economic war looks like


We, in Canada have been lucky for years with American governments. Our trade disputes have been relatively tiny, small, and minimally harmful over all. To those that did get harmed, it felt like the world was ending. But if you weren't one of those people you probably never thought about it.

Today, we are on notice that almost every Canadian working is now a potential casualty in a trade war started by Donald Trump. About 78% of all our trade goes to the United States. That's about $2 billion a day, every day.

Yes, tariffs will hurt American consumers. No one with a brain is going to dispute that.

They will hurt Canadian workers that rely on trade for their jobs a lot worse in the short and medium term.

A 10% tariff as Trump initially proposed would hurt our economy. A 25% tariff as Trump is now boasting will devastate our economy from coast to coast to coast, all sectors, all professions.

A recession is guaranteed in this scenario and it will likely be long and deep.

How does Canada respond? Well, we can put tariffs on American goods but that would hurt us even more. Our trading relationship with the USA is not symmetrical. We rely on them far more than they rely on us. They have a huge advantage in a trade war.

It is like this. Canada is a small snail on the ground. America is a guy wearing very large boots. We can't beat the US or even bring them to heel in a trade war.

Trump is demanding Canada secure its border with the USA. Note that he's not demanding that America secure its border. He wants us to shoulder the cost. He also wants Canada to crack down on Chinese imports that then go into the US market via our ports. Doug Ford first brought this up in Canada a couple of weeks ago vis a vis Mexico. Mexican authorities are already forcing companies to "buy local" parts instead of using Chinese imports, for example.

If we do what Trump demands will that fix things? Of course not. Trump will never be satisfied. Canada and Mexico will always be enemies in his mind.

Conservatives might say that Pierre Poilievre will better speak to Trump. Yes, that is a possibility. Trump does not like Justin Trudeau at all. That's pretty clear. Hate might be the more appropriate word. But I don't think Poilievre will have much luck with Trump either.

This boils down to the simple fact that fascists always need external and internal enemies to prop up their regimes. Trump cannot make nice with an enemy unless he has a good replacement. He needs the enemy, closer the better, to keep his base in a state of agitation.

What about CUSMA? Don't we have a trade agreement? As the CBC article shows, Trump is all but tearing up an agreement he signed with us. The treaty will be null and void and there's nothing we can do about that.

What about the World Trade Organization or WTO? Can they intervene? The UN and the WTO is a UN body operates through agreements and negotiation. When you have an irrational fascist in one country tearing up agreements it should be clear he won't care what WTO or anyone else says.

Okay, is there any good news? Well, there is a good chance what Trump said yesterday may never happen or not as extreme. Cooler heads in his administration, and there are a few, might get him to scale this stuff back. Congress may intervene as much as they can because they have a lot of members that are in states relying on that stable trade relationship.

I think the best bet on mitigating this impending disaster are American consumer groups. They have huge voice in the US. Americans don't like paying more for the things in life they both need and want. When prices go up, and inflation spikes, Trump and his administration will be facing an epic backlash.

Of course, that might take time.

One thing is certain, 2025 is going to be off to a very bad start

Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

FORSETH -- If having three un-happy MLA’s leave the party, is what it takes to have unity within caucus, then I say, “Fine; let it be so”

Regrettably, in recent days, issues within the Conservative Party of BC have come to the surface resulting in one member being removed from Caucus (Dallas Brodie) and the party, and two others (Tara Armstrong and Jordan Kealy) leaving of their own accord. As of this morning (Saturday March 8th) all three are now sitting as independents in the BC legislature. So, what does that mean? In the last twenty-four hours social media feeds have lit up with support for leader John Rustad, while others have been negative, accusing the party, and Rustad, of being bullies and not standing up for conservative values. Ryan Painter, who has personally worked with John Rustad, had this to say: Since the beginning, he's had one target: the BC NDP. He knows that British Columbians deserve a government that works for them, delivers on their promises, and doesn't tax them into poverty. He believes in his team and the power of a focused opposition. He knows who the enemy is. He knows BC deserves ...
Post a Comment
Read more

WARD STAMER: “Hopefully he’s actually listening to what people have to say, and not just showing up for a photo op”

In his latest travels across the province, BC Forest Minister Ravi Parmar touched down in the Okanagan. A trip essentially, he said, to be on the ground meeting industry people. I read what he had to say, and about how he has been tasked with getting more timber to market. Let me start by saying, “ He hasn’t been tasked. He and Premier Eby guaranteed 45 million cubic metres of available wood fibre – they guaranteed that .” BC Timber Sales is a government agency within the provincial forest’s ministry, which is responsible for managing a portion of the province's Crown timber; specifically, 20 percent of the province's annual allowable cut. Unfortunately, BC Timber Sales did not provide anywhere near that amount last year, it was just 12.2 percent. Three years ago, BC mills cut 52 million metres of wood, bringing in nearly $2 billion dollars to the provincial treasury. That figure doesn’t include the taxes from 55,700 people directly employed in the industry, nor from the tens o...
Post a Comment
Read more

Conservative Opposition demonstrates focused and policy-oriented approach in first four weeks of the legislative session

In the first four weeks of the legislative session, the Conservative Official Opposition has scored significant policy wins as it proves every day that the Conservative team has fresh ideas and real-world experience to bring to the table. At the same time, the NDP government has been listless, struggling to find a policy agenda that addresses the problems that British Columbians are facing. “This NDP government led by David Eby has tried to do everything under the sun to distract from their disastrous fiscal record and the fact that they are utterly out of ideas,” said Conservative Opposition Leader John Rustad. “They’ve tried to use the U.S. President to deflect from their eye-popping $11 billion deficit, the worst business confidence in the country, and the fact that they’ve created almost zero private sector jobs. This is no way to run a province or an economy.” Since the legislative session started on February 18th with the Throne Speech, the opposition...
Post a Comment
Read more

Labels

Show more