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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

FELSTED: Now relax, assured that NAFTA is not dead and is not easy to kill


Let’s try to clear the air a little. In all the press conferences, tweets, media reports, and assessments by various ‘experts’ it’s hard to keep track of reality.

  1. NAFTA is still in force. Nothing has changed. The agreement has not expired or been altered.

  1. Changing the terms of NAFTA, including US withdrawal, requires congressional approval.

  1. The USA and Mexico cannot alter NAFTA without Canada’s consent.

  1. The alleged bi-lateral deal between the US and Mexico is smoke. If it varies from NAFTA terms, NAFTA terms prevail.

  1. Donald Trump has given notice to congress that the US – Mexico terms of agreement will be presented for approval by September 29th.

  1. Congress is unlikely to approve an agreement that does not include Canada. There are too many states that have Canada as their major export market.

US President Donald Trump
  1. Trump’s bluster, bullying, deadlines and threats are tactics to improve the US bargaining position and so far, are not working.

  1. If Trump tries to withdraw from NAFTA, he still has to apply to congress for approval.

  1. Even if Trump secures congressional approval to withdraw from NAFTA he must do so under NAFTA terms.

10.   Norway (June), Russia (July) and China (August) have all applied to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for dispute consultation in respect to US tariffs. It is unlikely that the tariffs will stand.

11.   Current negotiations may or may not result in changes to NAFTA terms. Trump will not make final decisions on NAFTA terms – that is the role of the US congress.  

Now relax and enjoy a wonderful Labour Day long weekend assured that NAFTA is not dead and is not easy to kill.

John Feldsted
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