Skip to main content

“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

KRUGELL: Carney and auto tariffs -- the tone shifted

That was a muted statement he gave. Sure, we had the lines of we'll endure. We'll prevail. Blah, blah, blah. It was muted though and the reality is, our Canada Goose might be cooked unless someone in the USA can scare some sense into Donald Trump


One thing I respect about Mark Carney is that he's managerial. That's the same quality I liked in Stephen Harper. You aren't dealing with an ideologue. Guys like Carney and Harper tell you when it is bad, that it is bad. They don't sugar coat it. They don't pump you up.

Justin Trudeau was a very different kind of man. He rallied the troops on the eve of battle, even if the outcome was going to be defeat. Maybe that's a bad thing. You know? Setting unrealistic expectations.
Then again, maybe being realistic isn't all that great either. That's a discussion for another time.

Regardless, yesterday Donald Trump went off the rails again, gave a rambling speech about how everyone is mean to America and he announced 25% tariffs on all imported automobiles.

What is unclear is if this is just for finished assembled automobiles or also for parts. Mark Carney stated the government had to review the technical language of the executive order Trump signed. The likelihood was that this is for both finished products and parts.

Trump has made it clear he wants cars in the United States to be 100% made in the United States. That wish is unrealistic.

Still, as stated, this was a direct attack on the economies of Ontario and Quebec, and on Canada as a whole.

Mark Carney gave a statement to the press and it was subdued. He laid out the lines that this is unjustified, unfair, and ultimately hurts both countries. What was absent was the feeling that we were going to thump Trump over the head with counter tariffs. Sure, they are coming, but as Carney admitted last week - there's really little we can do and our limits are within sight.

Maybe you think I'm wrong here.

My argument is that Mark Carney knows that he has to set honest expectations on the trade war. He's poised to win a large majority government of 185+ seats. It won't be a minority. He won't be relying on other parties to get legislation through. It will all be on his shoulders.

If he allows himself to be over sold and then under deliver, it will sour the public on his government very quickly. There's no faster way on being a one term Prime Minister than completely failing in the first few months.

Just ask Joe Clark. He didn't even make it a year.

We all recall Doug Ford with this 25% surcharge on electricity that got repealed 3 hours after Trump threatened even worse reprisals. Trump has also threatened worse, again, if he thinks Canada and the EU are working together. Yeah, as insane as that sounds that is what Mark Carney is facing as Prime Minister. I am glad I do not have his job.

That was a muted statement he gave. Sure, we had the lines of we'll endure. We'll prevail. Blah, blah, blah. It was muted though and the reality is, our Canada Goose might be cooked unless someone in the USA can scare some sense into Donald Trump.

Last time it was the big three auto makers that called him up and talked some sense into him. This time he made it clear that they had a month to get their plans together and this is happening.
What can Carney do? Retaliatory tariffs? Yeah, that's the standard play from the book. Sure the government will do that. There's a problem this time.

The Americans that don't want them have no power to change policy, and the Americans that want them (those supporting Trump) don't care that they'll be hurt in the process. They believe a year or two of pain is worth it. You cannot fight a cult member on ideas or with facts or logic.

The problem is our automotive industry cannot handle those kinds of tariffs for a year or two. Six months is going to be brutal. Retaliatory tariffs won't keep Ford and GM plants open after six months and in the USA no one is going to spend $10,000 more for a car made in Canada when the one made in the USA is regular price.

None of this is a slam or an attack on Mark Carney. It is just a very simple statement: he can't make this go away. He can't fix this. Poilievre couldn't fix this either. Nor could Singh, May, or anyone else.

As a few commentators mentioned yesterday, the realization is sinking in that we might be in real trouble.

Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

FORSETH -- If having three un-happy MLA’s leave the party, is what it takes to have unity within caucus, then I say, “Fine; let it be so”

Regrettably, in recent days, issues within the Conservative Party of BC have come to the surface resulting in one member being removed from Caucus (Dallas Brodie) and the party, and two others (Tara Armstrong and Jordan Kealy) leaving of their own accord. As of this morning (Saturday March 8th) all three are now sitting as independents in the BC legislature. So, what does that mean? In the last twenty-four hours social media feeds have lit up with support for leader John Rustad, while others have been negative, accusing the party, and Rustad, of being bullies and not standing up for conservative values. Ryan Painter, who has personally worked with John Rustad, had this to say: Since the beginning, he's had one target: the BC NDP. He knows that British Columbians deserve a government that works for them, delivers on their promises, and doesn't tax them into poverty. He believes in his team and the power of a focused opposition. He knows who the enemy is. He knows BC deserves ...
Post a Comment
Read more

WARD STAMER: “Hopefully he’s actually listening to what people have to say, and not just showing up for a photo op”

In his latest travels across the province, BC Forest Minister Ravi Parmar touched down in the Okanagan. A trip essentially, he said, to be on the ground meeting industry people. I read what he had to say, and about how he has been tasked with getting more timber to market. Let me start by saying, “ He hasn’t been tasked. He and Premier Eby guaranteed 45 million cubic metres of available wood fibre – they guaranteed that .” BC Timber Sales is a government agency within the provincial forest’s ministry, which is responsible for managing a portion of the province's Crown timber; specifically, 20 percent of the province's annual allowable cut. Unfortunately, BC Timber Sales did not provide anywhere near that amount last year, it was just 12.2 percent. Three years ago, BC mills cut 52 million metres of wood, bringing in nearly $2 billion dollars to the provincial treasury. That figure doesn’t include the taxes from 55,700 people directly employed in the industry, nor from the tens o...
Post a Comment
Read more

Conservative Opposition demonstrates focused and policy-oriented approach in first four weeks of the legislative session

In the first four weeks of the legislative session, the Conservative Official Opposition has scored significant policy wins as it proves every day that the Conservative team has fresh ideas and real-world experience to bring to the table. At the same time, the NDP government has been listless, struggling to find a policy agenda that addresses the problems that British Columbians are facing. “This NDP government led by David Eby has tried to do everything under the sun to distract from their disastrous fiscal record and the fact that they are utterly out of ideas,” said Conservative Opposition Leader John Rustad. “They’ve tried to use the U.S. President to deflect from their eye-popping $11 billion deficit, the worst business confidence in the country, and the fact that they’ve created almost zero private sector jobs. This is no way to run a province or an economy.” Since the legislative session started on February 18th with the Throne Speech, the opposition...
Post a Comment
Read more

Labels

Show more