Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal leader and Prime Minister … Parliaments been prorogued and so the Liberal government avoided a non-confidence vote … and the Liberal Party of Canada is now in a leadership race with what now seems to be two likely outcomes; the election of Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland.
As if things weren’t topsy-turvy enough federally, it actually is, and could be, even more so.
Did you know there are THREE possible dates that the next federal election can be held?
Before the collapse of the Liberals over the past year, Canadians expected to elect a new government on (or before) October 20th, 2025. With the NDP propping up the Liberals, that date seemed fairly certain; that was until NDP leader Jagmeet Singh pulled the plug and withdrew his party’s support.
Then, all bets were off.
Fast forward to a few weeks ago and Singh, along with Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet, both stated they would bring the government down at the earliest possible opportunity; something the Conservatives have been trying to do for months now.
Then, Trudeau announced his resignation, and to ensure the government would not Fall once it went back in session, Trudeau got permission from the Governor General Mary Simon to Prorogued Parliament until March 24th.
But that was only going to delay the inevitable – there is almost certainty a vote of non-confidence will be held right after Members of Parliament (MP’s) return to Parliament. As my nephew Steve Forseth pointed out … once the Federal Liberals select their leader on March 9th, no matter who it is, the House of Commons MUST pass Interim Supply for the 2025-2026 Financial Year on Wednesday, March 26th. (CLICK HERE to find out more on Financial Procedures)
This is automatically a Confidence Matter by Parliamentary Convention, and if the Liberal government is unable to pass the Interim Supply or Budget, due to insufficient votes, then an election will follow as it will be deemed "the House has no confidence in the Government".
In other words, the government must get the backing from either the NDP, Bloc or Conservatives. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will never do that, but could the new Liberal leader pull a rabbit out of his or her hat?
What if they could get the New Democrats or Bloc Quebecois to support them with the right incentive (read that getting the Liberals to co-operate in getting legislation passed that’s important to them)? Both Singh and Blanchet have been adamant they won’t, but stranger things have happened.
If not, the race is on, and we will go into an immediate election culminating in a likely Conservative government being elected at the end of April.
That’s the second possible date.
But let’s go back to that unlikely scenario of Singh or Blanchet propping up the Liberals on the Budget vote. Say they do. That means the minority Liberal government could continue through to this Fall, and the original election date of October 20th.
Maximum duration of legislative bodies
• 4 (1) No House of Commons and no legislative assembly shall continue for longer than five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs of a general election of its members.
You read that right … no legislative assembly shall continue for longer than FIVE years.
Of course that’s extremely unlikely, and as Mike Redmond commented to me, “I can't see why the NDP would agree to this. It would look pretty desperate.”
Still, as I have outlined, it could indeed happen, meaning no election until 2026!
All of these scenarios have happened in the past – individually -- but I don’t think they have ever all collided together at the same time.
So now we wait and see who becomes the next leader of the Liberal Party … how long they last … if an immediate non-confidence vote gets called … if the Bloc or NDP decide to prop up the Liberals … and will we have an election this Spring, this Fall, or in 2026.
Interesting times, and topsy-turvy, as I described things at the beginning of this commentary.
Now I’m no constitutionalist, and so I may be wrong on this assessment I have laid out. If that’s the case, I look forward to hearing from you.
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