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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

Polling Bump or Mount Everest: Has Trudeau’s Exit Sparked a Liberal Rebound? (338 Canada)


With the Liberal leadership race in full swing, the party is searching for a new leader to take them into the next election, slated for October at the latest (but most likely sooner). Meanwhile, Canadians have had time to digest Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal leader—a development that has led to some, shall we say, interesting polling results from one firm in particular.

Over the past 40 days, EKOS has released five separate polls showing an increasing share of support for the Liberals. In December, the Conservatives led the Liberals by a massive 26 points, with the Liberals tied with the NDP at 19%.

Just days into the new year, and shortly after Trudeau’s resignation, EKOS released a poll indicating a bounce for the Liberals, who climbed to 26% while the Conservative lead shrank to 16 points. Although 26% was on the high side compared to other pollsters, it was still within reason. What followed, however, was a rapid series of EKOS polls showing the Liberals continuing to climb ...

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