KRUGGEL: Summer polling summary and where the parties stand

Well, the summer has been great for the Liberals, mediocre for the NDP, and terrible for the Conservatives.

The data is very clear, the Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives in every province but BC and Alberta. They have an 45% in the poll of polls with the Conservatives far back at 38%. The NDP are up to 8%.

 

I'll start with the NDP. The summer has been mediocre for them as they've had no bad news per se and a lack of good news. The party is still reorganizing after the 2025 election debacle. While they haven't talked about the party's finances one could only guess just how bad they are. I suspect the NDP is millions of dollars in debt today just like they were in 2021 after that election.

 

Unlike 2021 they have far fewer MPs today. Their leadership convention has yet to be scheduled and as to who will be running seems to be up in the air so far. The party is leaderless, rudderless, and broke and if that wasn't bad enough they aren't relevant. 

 

Next, we have the Conservatives. They've dropped in the polls and done so substantially since election night. They are sitting at 38% in the aggregate but some polls have them as low as 32% for Nanos and 35% for Liaison. The only firm putting them at 40%, and that's their highest, is Abacus. 

 

Pierre Poilievre's personal brand is a shadow of what it was. Public numbers on him vs. Mark Carney give the Liberal Leader an average of a 2 to 1 lead in the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. I think many pundits will argue that his defeat in his own riding shattered the public view of him as a leader. His fall from grace to mediocrity, having to beg for a seat to run in, has tarnished his public image to the point it may not be repairable.

 

At this point, the Conservatives may want to consider looking for a new leader and in particular, one that talks about the issues people care about, and sounding a lot less like Donald Trump.

 

If you look at the 338Canada.com map the shift in Ontario, British Columbia, and all of Atlantic Canada is pretty devastating for Conservatives. They are in the position today that the Liberals were in, in 2024. It's bad.

 

Take a look at Manitoba. The Liberals would likely win 7 of the provinces 14 seats. That's a low for the Conservatives. But the numbers in British Columbia are even worse with the Liberals positioned to take 22 of the province's seats an the Conservatives only 16. That is a major reversal of fortunes for a party that once pretty much walked to victory in British Columbia. In 2011 Stephen Harper won the bulk of BC's seats easily. 

 

From everything I've written do I need to discuss the Liberals? The reversal of their position from 2024 to 2025 is unprecedented for a political party in Canada nationally. Mark Carney's government is between 50% and 65% approval, depending on the poll. Abacus has them at a low of 50%. That's a great number for the Liberals as well given all of the things going on.

 

If an election were held today they'd probably get their majority government. Unfortunately for them, the public is in no mood for an election. However, the Liberals are very fortunate as well in that they can govern as if they have a majority. The Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc are in no shape to go to the polls today.

 

The Liberals could put forward any budget or bill they see fit and they'd get it passed with one of the other parties support or the other parties would abstain. 

 

If you're a Liberal, things really could not be much better.

 

I should add one final thing: what if Pierre Poilievre loses his by-election? 

That's a question no one seems to be asking. If he loses the Conservatives will be in a crisis.


ABOUT DEVON KRUGGEL:
I'm a 51-year-old Caucasian male and was a right winger of sorts from the age of 16 until I was about 47 or so. I have a degree in History and Political Science and one in Computer Science.  I have lived in BC since 1990, and on Vancouver Island since 1993.