Skip to main content

“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

KRUGGEL: Summer polling summary and where the parties stand


Well, the summer has been great for the Liberals, mediocre for the NDP, and terrible for the Conservatives.

The data is very clear, the Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives in every province but BC and Alberta. They have an 45% in the poll of polls with the Conservatives far back at 38%. The NDP are up to 8%.
 
I'll start with the NDP. The summer has been mediocre for them as they've had no bad news per se and a lack of good news. The party is still reorganizing after the 2025 election debacle. While they haven't talked about the party's finances one could only guess just how bad they are. I suspect the NDP is millions of dollars in debt today just like they were in 2021 after that election.
 
Unlike 2021 they have far fewer MPs today. Their leadership convention has yet to be scheduled and as to who will be running seems to be up in the air so far. The party is leaderless, rudderless, and broke and if that wasn't bad enough they aren't relevant. 
 
Next, we have the Conservatives. They've dropped in the polls and done so substantially since election night. They are sitting at 38% in the aggregate but some polls have them as low as 32% for Nanos and 35% for Liaison. The only firm putting them at 40%, and that's their highest, is Abacus. 
 
Pierre Poilievre's personal brand is a shadow of what it was. Public numbers on him vs. Mark Carney give the Liberal Leader an average of a 2 to 1 lead in the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. I think many pundits will argue that his defeat in his own riding shattered the public view of him as a leader. His fall from grace to mediocrity, having to beg for a seat to run in, has tarnished his public image to the point it may not be repairable.
 
At this point, the Conservatives may want to consider looking for a new leader and in particular, one that talks about the issues people care about, and sounding a lot less like Donald Trump.
 
If you look at the 338Canada.com map the shift in Ontario, British Columbia, and all of Atlantic Canada is pretty devastating for Conservatives. They are in the position today that the Liberals were in, in 2024. It's bad.
 
Take a look at Manitoba. The Liberals would likely win 7 of the provinces 14 seats. That's a low for the Conservatives. But the numbers in British Columbia are even worse with the Liberals positioned to take 22 of the province's seats an the Conservatives only 16. That is a major reversal of fortunes for a party that once pretty much walked to victory in British Columbia. In 2011 Stephen Harper won the bulk of BC's seats easily. 
 
From everything I've written do I need to discuss the Liberals? The reversal of their position from 2024 to 2025 is unprecedented for a political party in Canada nationally. Mark Carney's government is between 50% and 65% approval, depending on the poll. Abacus has them at a low of 50%. That's a great number for the Liberals as well given all of the things going on.
 
If an election were held today they'd probably get their majority government. Unfortunately for them, the public is in no mood for an election. However, the Liberals are very fortunate as well in that they can govern as if they have a majority. The Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc are in no shape to go to the polls today.
 
The Liberals could put forward any budget or bill they see fit and they'd get it passed with one of the other parties support or the other parties would abstain. 
 
If you're a Liberal, things really could not be much better.
 
I should add one final thing: what if Pierre Poilievre loses his by-election? 

That's a question no one seems to be asking. If he loses the Conservatives will be in a crisis.


ABOUT DEVON KRUGGEL:
I'm a 51-year-old Caucasian male and was a right winger of sorts from the age of 16 until I was about 47 or so. I have a degree in History and Political Science and one in Computer Science.  I have lived in BC since 1990, and on Vancouver Island since 1993.

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

BC cannot regulate, redesign, and reinterpret its way to a stable forestry sector. Communities need clear rules, predictable timelines, and accountability for results.

Photo credit:  Atli Resources LP   BC’s Forestry Crisis Continues with Closure of Beaver Cove Chip Facility   As industry leaders, Indigenous partners, and contractors gather this week at the BC Natural Resources Forum in Prince George, the gap between government rhetoric and reality could not be clearer. Just hours after the Eby government once again touted reconciliation, certainty, and economic opportunity under DRIPA, Atli Chip Ltd, a company wholly owned by the ’Na̱mg̱is First Nation, announced it is managing the orderly closure of its Beaver Cove chip facility. The closure comes despite public tax dollars, repeated government announcements, and assurances that new policy frameworks would stabilize forestry employment and create long-term opportunity in rural and coastal British Columbia. “British Columbians are being told one story, while communities are living another,” said Ward Stamer, Critic for Forests. “This closure makes it clear that announcement...
Post a Comment
Read more

Stamer: Hope for Forestry Completely Shattered After Another Provincial Review Driven by DRIPA

IMAGE CREDIT:  Provincial Forestry Advisory Council Conservative Critic for Forests Ward Stamer says the final report from the Provincial Forestry Advisory Council confirms the worst fears of forestry workers and communities; instead of addressing the real issues driving mill closures and job losses, the NDP has produced a report that ignores industry realities and doubles down on governance restructuring. Despite years of warnings from forestry workers, contractors, and industry organizations about permitting delays, regulatory costs, fibre access, and the failure of BC Timber Sales, the PFAC report offers no urgency, no timelines, and no concrete action to stop the ongoing decline of the sector. “ This report completely shatters any remaining hope that the government is serious about saving forestry ,” said Stamer.  “ We didn’t need another study to tell us what industry has been saying for years. While mills close and workers lose their livelihoods, the NDP is focused on re...
Post a Comment
Read more

FORSETH – My question is, ‘How do we decide who is blue enough to be called a Conservative?’

How do we decide who’s blue enough to be a Conservative? AS OF TODAY (Friday January 30 th ), there are now eight individuals who have put their names forward to lead the Conservative Party of British Columbia. Having been involved with BC’s Conservatives since 2010, and having seen MANY ups and downs, having 8 people say “I want to lead the party” is to me, an incredible turn-around from the past. Sadly, however, it seems that our party cannot seem to shake what I, and others, call a purity test of ‘what is a Conservative’. And that seems to have already come to the forefront of the campaign by a couple of candidates. Let me just say as a Conservative Party of BC member, and as someone active in the party, that frustrates me to no end. Conservatives, more than any other political philosophy or belief, at least to me, seems to have the widest and broadest spectrum of ideals.   For the most part, they are anchored by these central thoughts --- smaller and less intru...
1 comment
Read more

Labels

Show more