Skip to main content

“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

FORSETH -- Before anyone gets excited about one poll showing a candidate with a 25 percent lead, and 44 percent support overall, let’s give it a few more weeks

Is this based in reality -- how accurate are the numbers?


In the past couple of weeks a couple of candidates, for the leadership of the BC Conservative Party, have been presenting polling results that they lead the pack – one even going so far as to say they have a lock on 44% of those who will be voting, and a twenty-five percent lead over the individual ranked second.

I am going to say that this one, from Kerry-Lynne Findlay, is highly suspect.

First of all the company conducting the poll, ERG National Research, is not a Member of Industry Bodies (the Canadian Research Insights Council), meaning they do not adhere to established industry standards for research, such as transparency, privacy, and methodological rigor. AI Overview states that ... based on alerts from the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and reports, ERG National Research should be treated with extreme caution regarding its reliability, and legitimacy, in conducting political polling.

Before I even read this information however, I was already doubtful, so I checked the link they provided, that led to the questions which were asked of those who agreed to participate in the poll.

For those who didn’t click the link, let me present you with Question #3; “If a vote were held today for the leadership of the BC Conservatives, which candidate would you support?”.  Here are how the 7 individuals were presented – and it should be noted that there are actually 11 candidates currently in the running:

  • Iain Black … former BC Liberal Cabinet Minister
  • Kerry-Lynne Findlay… former Conservative MP and Harper Cabinet Minister
  • Yuri Fulmer … former BC Conservative candidate
  • Peter Milobar ... MLA and former BC Liberal
  • Caroline Elliott … former BC Liberal Party Vice President
  • Sheldon Clare ... BC Conservative MLA
  • Darrell Jones ... former Save-On-Foods CEO


Does anyone notice what I saw?  Three of the candidates are identified as being previously involved with the BC Liberals – while one gets predominance as a former Conservative Party of Canada MP and a member of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cabinet.

Polls like these, with questions presented in this manner have a name ... they are called Push Polls because they direct people to the answer they want to get. Again, using AI, they describe a Push Poll as using leading, negative, or false information in loaded questions to sway or "push" voter opinion against an opponent”.

Further while most polls are balanced in weighing responses from regions of the province, whether they are male or female, as well as age demographics, ERG and Findlay provide none of this information from the 528 respondents.  I, personally, have yet to see that information not included in polling results from mainstream polling companies such as Leger, Nanos, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Mainstreet and Research Co.

Personally, and I do have skin in the game as I will be voting for who becomes the next leader, I think it is far too early in the game to determine who may or not be leading amongst those who will be voting for the next leader of the Conservative Party of BC.  

Candidates are still criss-crossing the province, with one (Yuri Fulmer) already having visited Kamloops, and two others making stops this week (Iain Black on Wednesday and Caroline Elliott on Thursday). And I feel fairly certain that the majority, if not all, other candidates will be making stops here as well.

So, before anyone gets excited about one poll showing a candidate with a 25% lead, and 44% support overall, let’s give it a few more weeks – especially given that one poll showed nearly 40% undecided.
 

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Nurses Take Job Action After Years of NDP Neglect

Image Credit:  BC Nurses Union BC nurses have reached a breaking point after years of unsafe conditions, rising violence in the workplace and a government that wouldn’t listen. Now they are on the picket line fighting to be heard. Last week, nurses began job action with a 72-hour strike notice, refusing non-essential overtime and stepping back from non-nursing duties. As of Tuesday, they have escalated to picket lines for the first time in decades. This moment was avoidable. It is the result of years of unanswered concerns from the frontline workers who keep our hospitals running. Nurses have been raising the same concerns for years: unsafe staffing levels, rising violence on the job, and a workload no single person should have to carry. None of it is new, and none of it should have taken a strike vote to get the government's attention. "Nurses are exercising their legal right to job action, but it shouldn’t have had to come to this," said Kiel Giddens, MLA for...
Post a Comment
Read more

British Columbians Still Don’t Know Who’s Paying for NDP’s BC Hydro Deal

The NDP is making billion-dollar promises with BC Hydro, but British Columbians still don’t know who will pay the bill. Last week’s memorandum of understanding isn’t what the federal government and the NDP are making it out to be. It’s an admission that the NDP failed to make the long-term investments needed to keep B.C. powered. Now British Columbians have serious questions about the cost and whether BC Hydro ratepayers will end up paying the price. David L. Williams, MLA for Salmon Arm-Shuswap and Shadow Minister for BC Hydro and Electrical Energy Development , said British Columbians deserve clear answers about the full implications of the Canada–British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement. “British Columbians deserve the full truth,” said Mr. Williams. “This multi-billion-dollar announcement does not answer who pays for cost overruns, who pays for new generation, who carries the risk if industrial customers do not materialize, or whether ratepayers will be forced ...
Post a Comment
Read more

NDP Government Blames Everyone but Themselves

The federal government has announced new measures to support British Columbia's forestry sector, including $65 million in funding for projects across the province. While any support is welcome, it falls far short of the level of assistance other provinces have secured for key industries. Conservative Forests Critic Ward Stamer says the NDP government needs to take responsibility for its mismanagement of B.C.’s forest industry instead of trying to pass on the blame. Despite promising to create more jobs in the forest sector, the NDP government has overseen the loss of thousands of forestry jobs and 21 mill closures which have devastated communities. “If Premier Eby spent more time addressing the regulatory issues impacting the forestry sector than he did complaining about the federal government, we would not be in the position we are now,” said Stamer. “And instead of trying to place the blame for mill closures on Donald Trump, Minister of Forests Ravi Parmar should t...
Post a Comment
Read more

Labels

Show more