KRUGGEL: Pallas poll doesn't cover period after the BC NDP budget with its sea of deep red ink. That said, there's some good data here to chew through

Pallas Data Poll: British Columbia:

This poll does not cover the period after the BC NDP budget with its sea of deep red ink.

That said, there's some good data here to chew through.

 

The first is that three of the four main parties are down in the polls by statistically insignificant amounts, 2% is within the margin of error. That all three are down though, kind of interesting. 

 

The Greens are up by 3pts but I don't think that's of any value in the BC political picture mainly because we have an Anybody But Conservatives or ABC movement in the province. This means that Green votes will likely shift to the NDP in ridings with close races.

 

Regional numbers

Regionally the numbers are great for the NDP. They have a 10 point lead in Metro Vancouver. On Vancouver Island they have a 21 point lead. In the rest of BC the BC Conservatives lead by 7 points meaning there are plenty of seats that the BC NDP is still competitive in.

 

OneBC is eating some Conservative support

These numbers would give the NDP a strong majority government. The thorn in the side of the Conservatives is OneBC. The party is sucking support from the right flank of the Conservatives to the tune of 5 points in Metro Vancouver, 6 points on Vancouver Island, and 7 points in the rest of the province. 

 

If OneBC were to fold its tend up the BC NDP's lead over the Conservatives would shrink.

 

Gender and age voting intention

There is no surprise on gender. Traditionally women voters favor progressive parties and men conservative ones. The NDP lead among women by 18 points and the Conservatives lead among men by 8 points. 

 

The age demographics are all tight until you the 65+ cohort. There the NDP holds a strong 14 point lead. As we all know, seniors decide elections in this province. 

 

Will the budget change things?

That's a million dollar question. Will the budget with its sea of red ink sink the NDP in the polls? Conversely, will NDP voters and progressives reward the party for its commitment to health care and education as well as building infrastructure?

 

Budgets play differently to different demographic groups and, obviously, people that hold different ideological stances. Their priorities, as they see them, will determine if this budget was a hit or a miss with voters. So while some voters will change support on the deficit, there are others where the deficit is of no consequence to their vote.

 

Conservative leadership candidate numbers

The numbers are looking good for Caroline Elliot today. She's in the front of the pack with 16% support with, followed by Darrell Jones at 9%. The rest are all under 6%. The undecideds are at 53.9% which is huge. 

That's a result from the province as a whole not registered Conservative members. 

 

The numbers among BC Conservatives could be wildly different. That said, those are good starting positions for Caroline Elliot and Darrell Jones. 

 

Kerry-Lynne Findlay is at 2.7% and Yuri Fulmer at 2% so they have to be reading this number and having some serious thoughts. There is a long race ahead so there is a lot of time for things to shake up.

But, Elliot has Kory Teneycke advising her campaign. He's the man that ran Doug Ford's campaigns and he's considered one of the best campaign strategists this country has ever seen. Elliot has that as an advantage over the rest.

 

I like Darrell Jones, but if Teneycke does his thing and Elliot does what he says and with this starting position she is in a good position to win this thing.