FORSETH - As increased automation has hit forest and resource industries, tens of thousands of jobs have been shed, which we will never see again.
Then, one week ago, the Conference Board advised it’s subscribers that, “
Since its release in March, our Automation Vulnerability Index (AVI) tool has been used by hundreds of policy-makers in preparation for the technological changes to come.”
So ... here’s my question ... is it being used by the provincial government, and being taken note of by the political parties creating policies, which should be for the betterment of British Columbia and it’s residents?
One of the biggest concerns, which I noted from reading the report, are that:
- Smaller regions with less diverse economies are likely to be impacted than the larger regions ... and ...
- Automation
will likely affect regions that have manufacturing legacies and tourism-based
economies the most.
I added the italics in the two points
noted above, which if you live in BC, should be a BIG concern.
As more and more automation has hit
our forestry and resource industries, tens of thousands of jobs have been shed –
and there is no way we’ll ever see those numbers brought back.
The handful of major forestry
companies in BC have all outright closed operations in many of the smaller
communities.
Within an hours drive in any direction
from where I live in Kamloops, we’ve seen mills close in Merritt, Kamloops, and
the North Thompson. The same has happened down the road in Kelowna and many
areas of the Okanagan ... in the Cariboo where I once lived ... and in northern
BC. Instead of supporting jobs in small-town BC, these companies have instead trucked
timber resources from those communities, into larger centrally located mills.
And according to the Conference Board
report, that will only continue, as “employment declines in occupations that
involve routine tasks” ... and ... “local economies with a high
concentration of high-risk, low-mobility occupations will likely see more job
loses, demographic change, and industry restructuring.”
For small-town BC that is a double-edged
sword. Few if any new jobs are being created, and the lack of new jobs is
furthering endangering fragile local economies, leading to the local grocery
store, restaurants, and other businesses closing ... as well as schools and hospitals.
“Placing automation in the context of other ongoing labour market trends highlights additional vulnerabilities that regional economies will likely face as companies and industries adopt new automation-enabling technologies. Knowing the type and amount of employment at risk of automation, and the economic costs associated with potential transitions to less vulnerable occupations, could help policy-makers better prepare for technological change.”
~~ Conference Board of Canada, Preparing Canada’s Economies for Automation
While I have not changed my opinion on
the need for BC governments to actively support the kinds of high-paying
economy building jobs that come about from forestry and resource industries, expanding
past what the Conference Board of Canada is calling ‘high-risk, low-mobility’
(HRLM), must be a major focus at all levels of government.
Consider these facts, from the Conference
Board report, with regards to Western Canada:
... nearly 21% of all jobs are HRLM
... the labour force in occupations with limited job openings is 67.5%
... over 21% of the labour force is 55 or older.
... nearly 40% of the labour force has
only a high school diploma or less
AND THIS ... the average transition cost, to new fields
of employment, is $83,671!
This is purely speculation on my part, however it seems the higher cost would
be due to the fact we are looking at generally an older population, with perhaps
less advanced education, requiring refreshers in some basic education areas
before going on to training in possible new fields of employment.
The mystery for me in reading this
report was that while briefly mentioning the tourism sector would be one
impacted, there really was no information as to why, and how that would be;
hopefully this will be something investigated further in the weeks and months
ahead.
The policies of government, and the political parties of those who would seek
our vote, can’t ignore the information in this report because if they do, we
are headed for economic disaster.
And as a friend of mine stated to me
after he himself read this report, ‘Everyone else is focused on the next
day, we need leadership and foresight in this province.’
Is government ready to lead? I certainly hope so.
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