... the 2025 election results representing an electoral foundation for the party to build upon, there’s an alternative case that it may actually represents its peak. There may not be much room for further optimization. That can be seen through the distinct experiences of O’Toole and Poilievre.
The two offered opposing theories of the case—moderation versus reconsolidation—and yet both ran into the same fundamental constraint. The party can trade base enthusiasm for centrist appeal, or vice versa, but there’s an extent to which it must be understood as a zero-sum exercise. The message, ideas, and tone to reach one set of voters necessarily impose limits on reaching others. The Conservative Party may be stuck in a virtual one-for-one tradeoff between its base voters and non-base voters that cannot be further optimized. If that’s right, then the answer isn’t mere adjustments. It’s foundational rethinking.
It may seem counterintuitive, but if Conservatives accept this premise—as former Harper-era chief of staff Guy Giorno notably has—then it can be liberating. It can enable a more fundamental re-evaluation of how Canadian conservatives approach electoral politics. That includes rethinking the electoral system itself ...
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