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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

338 Good Friday Update: This Ain't Over Yet


The debates have come and gone, and we now enter the final stretch of the 2025 federal campaign. Polls have come aplenty in recent days, many of them measuring a tightening race—though to varying degrees—at the top of voting intentions. So let’s review the latest data and update the federal projections.

The latest numbers from the daily trackers somewhat diverge. This morning’s Nanos Research update puts the Liberals back in front with 45% support, compared to 37% for the Conservatives. If the LPC wins the popular vote by eight points on election night, it would secure a comfortable majority.

However, the latest updates from Mainstreet Research and Liaison Strategies show much narrower gaps between the two main parties. This morning’s Mainstreet tracker sees a statistical tie, with the Liberals at 42% and the Conservatives at 41% (regional details are paywalled). Liaison’s latest update, from yesterday, showed only a three-point spread between the Liberals (44%) and the Conservatives (41%).

All three daily trackers measured NDP support at between 6% and 7% nationally ...

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