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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

KRUGGEL: Canada Election 2025 Prediction: Liberal Majority Government


It might be too soon to call it but I'm going to call it. Mark Carney's Liberals are going to win a large majority government and I'll peg that number around 190-200 seats.

There is plenty of data to accurately gauge a few things.

First, the Liberals are in control of the narrative of the election campaign. They've seized every issue first with the Conservatives following behind them usually trying to one up them.

Second, the Liberals have all the momentum. While that is something we really cannot quantitatively measure it is something those of us long time followers with some training in political science can recognize. This campaign is barreling towards election day with the Liberals riding it to the finish line.

Third, the polls are showing clear trends that are not changing. The Liberal lead is expanding by fractional amounts every single day. While Manitoba appears to be somewhat in play the rest of the provinces are all but decided.

The Conservatives will sweep Alberta and Saskatchewan -- that's it.

British Columbia, know for its volatile politics and wild swings was trending to the Conservatives just a few months ago with them leading at between 46% and 51%. Today they are behind the Liberals by 5pts.

Consider that the last by-election in BC in December saw the Liberal candidate pull in a mere 16% of the vote. Traditionally, the Conservatives could count on around 20 seats in BC. Today they are looking at 18 which is a low for them.

But the biggest reason the Liberals are sailing to victory is Jagmeet Singh and his mismanagement of the NDP. He has completely boned the NDP for the last 4 years rendering them irrelevant.

The NDP vote went from around 18-21% to 6-8% today. The NDP has fallen by 10 to 15pts. That's a near collapse of the party. They are still projected to get anywhere from zero to 7 seats. Let's just consider the growing possibility that the NDP might be kicked out of Parliament for 4 years. If the trends continue that is almost guaranteed.

Yes, it is increasingly likely that the NDP will have no seats after April 28th.

I do not believe the Conservatives or the NDP will turn this around and I am 100% confident in declaring Mark Carney and the Liberals will win a majority government. 

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