The West is furious, separation talk is growing. Can Mark Carney hold the country together before it falls apart?
Conservatives in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, in particular, are profoundly disappointed that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada was defeated by a coalition of progressive voters in the federal election. In their anger, many have lashed out and called for regional separation from Canada, despite the economic risks and political instability such a move would bring.
They don’t seem to care that the move would be disastrous economically, almost certainly leading to a deeply diminished standard of living. Nor do they seem to care that such divisive talk feeds into the Donald Trump playbook of divide and conquer, making his dream of seeing Canada as the 51st state more achievable.
Part of what hurts so much, it seems, is that the Conservative Party won a higher per cent of votes than it had even when Stephen Harper formed government. The party broke through in Ontario’s 905 belt, snatching seats away from the Liberals. Had the NDP and Bloc voters not shifted en masse to the Liberals in a “stop Poilievre” movement, we would have a Conservative government today (albeit without an elected leader, since Poilievre lost his own seat). They can thank Trump for that.
The worst form of heartbreak comes from watching certain victory snatched away at the last minute.
Liberalism, for many prairie westerners, is a trigger word. Mere mention of the L-word triggers vitriol in some circles, closing off the opportunity for a rational discussion about how the West might be able to work with a governing party they did not choose. Memories of Justin Trudeau, the archetype of the arrogant Laurentian elitist, are so fresh they feel like an open wound.
This is the daunting conundrum Prime Minister Mark Carney faces as he walks a cat’s cradle of tightropes—negotiating with the erratic Trump, seeking to avoid conflict with pipeline-averse Quebec, mitigating the impact of an oncoming economic recession and, somehow, finding a way to build bridges with those angry westerners who aren’t interested in talking right now.
It also doesn’t help that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, aided and abetted by the perplexing Preston Manning, is in effect giving purchase to separatists by, on the one hand, claiming she favours a united Canada while, on the other, giving separatists an audience and making it easier to hold a separation referendum.
But there are also positives for the pro-Canada crowd. First Nations are furious over separation talk. The Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation and Blackfoot Confederacy have written to Smith, calling on her to cease and desist from separatist actions that they say are “illegal.”
It also helps that Carney did not grow up in Quebec, the entitled child of a rich intellectual. Born in the Northwest Territories and raised in Alberta, Carney at least is starting from first base. And, so far at least, he has shown humility, humour and sensitivity to regional interests.
Importantly, in spite of a recent surge in separatist talk, not everyone in Alberta and other prairie provinces is excited about the prospect of western separation. In fact, the Liberals earned nearly 28 per cent of votes in Alberta, which is the best showing since the heady days of (Pierre) Trudeau-mania in 1968. (Yes, it’s true, the West briefly was in love with the senior Trudeau.) Recent polling has also found that nearly two-thirds feel Alberta would fare best economically as part of Canada.
So, if Carney can use his considerable personal charm to cool the fires, there just might be a path to keeping the country together. It will, however, require a willingness to consider concessions to the West that his predecessor would never entertain.
It starts with clearing a path to approving pipelines and energy projects. The staggering final cost of the Trans-Mountain pipeline expansion ($34 billion) illustrates how Canada’s regulatory framework has made future developments unworkable.
Carney has said he wants to turn Canada into an energy superpower, and, like it or not, in the near term, some of that will involve fossil fuels. It will also involve accelerating the development of nuclear power and, of course, a deeper commitment to renewables.
In a perfect world, he would also find a way to convince Quebec to allow the Energy Eastern pipeline to travel through that province. That’s a tough sell that would require a level of magic no previous federal government has been able to achieve. But don’t rule it out.
Carney also needs to find a way to make peace with China. The 100 per cent tariffs the previous Liberal government imposed on the import of Chinese vehicles (a move in part intended to mollify U.S. interests) have led to devastating retaliatory tariffs from China on Canadian pork and canola. That cannot continue.
It also comes down to showing respect to provincial jurisdictions, treating provinces as true partners rather than ill-behaved children that need to be brought into line. More than one in five of Albertans polled recently said the federal government must more closely listen to the province. Regular first ministers’ meetings would be a good place to start.
It’s an ambitious to-do list, for sure. Expectations of a leader have never been higher: corral Trump, make trade peace with China, unite Canada and save the economy—all before lunch.
Can Carney make a difference in his first 100 days? He has to, and I wish him Godspeed in his efforts. I shiver at the prospect of the country’s future if he is unable to deliver.
Doug Firby is an award-winning editorial writer with over four decades of experience working for newspapers, magazines and online publications in Ontario and western Canada. Previously, he served as Editorial Page Editor at the Calgary Herald.
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