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“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, or free to choose those who shall govern my country. This heritage of freedom I pledge to uphold for myself and all mankind.” ~~ John G. Diefenbaker

With Leadership Review Looming, How Safe is Poilievre? (338 Canada)

One of the main storylines of the fall sitting in Ottawa will be how Pierre Poilievre manages to both court the broader electorate as Leader of the Official Opposition, while also keeping an eye on his standing within his own party. To face Mark Carney in the next general election, Poilievre must first clear a major internal hurdle: a leadership confidence vote scheduled for the next Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) National Convention in Calgary this January.

Last week’s large-sample federal poll from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) offered a rare opportunity to take a closer look at Poilievre’s personal numbers. With a national sample of 3,656 respondents, ARI’s dataset is large enough to provide more reliable insight into more granular subgroups (ARI sometimes releases these cross-tabs even when their overall sample is smaller, but we prefer not to analyze subgroups of fewer than about a hundred respondents).

The question: “Do you have a favourable of unfavourable view of Pierre Poilievre — leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?” ...

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