Model Development Diary #2: Do candidates matter? And if so, by how much?

The limitation in any seat projection model is that it is impossible to predict how voters will behave in each individual riding with a great degree of confidence. Even though a national poll of 1,500 Canadians can only hint at the broader shifts in public opinion, for the most part ridings generally swing according to those broader shifts.

But there’s always some variation from one riding to the next.

Granted, some of that variation will always be unpredictable without more granular data, such as riding-level polling. But the rest of that variation can be predicted to some degree by analyzing what impact certain types of candidates have had in the past.

When they matter at all, that is ...

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